running backs After four seasons together with the Green Bay Packers, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon may be headed
away at the end of the current campaign.
On Thursday, December 7, Matt Schneidman of The Athletic wrote a mailbag in which he talked about both players’
futures. Schneidman’s responses suggest that Dillon is less likely to be wearing green and gold in 2024 because he is
more replaceable.
Although Dillon isn’t quite your usual feature back, he has established himself as a reliable No. 2 running back.
Through the draft, the Packers can select a new No. 2 for less money, and that player may trail Jones for a year
before taking over at lead-back.
While Dillon has undoubtedly improved from the beginning of the season, it’s possible that he needed to prove
himself as a legitimate No. 1 back in order to be awarded a contract extension, which he hasn’t done and won’t.
But the Packers may cut ties with Jones, re-sign Dillon for a single season, then select a player early to either sit
behind or split carries with Dillon. But the Packers might not be willing to give Dillon and his camp a multiyear deal.
In Dillon’s instance, the Packers need to weigh the length of time and amount of money required against the kind of
output they can expect from the running back. For rookies that Green Bay might select in the middle or late rounds
of the 2024 NFL Draft, that value assessment needs to be compared to the same formula.
Regarding Jones, the most important questions are how much the Packers stand to save by trading or releasing him,
how much his age and recent injury issues would actually damage the run game, and where else the team could use
the money saved on Jones to strengthen other areas of the roster.
After this season, Jones’ contract will expire in one year, thus releasing or selling him before June 1st will free up just
less than $5 million in cap space. In running back years, he also just turned 29, which is equivalent to 85 regular
human years.
During the previous four seasons, he participated in 62 out of 66 regular-season games; through 12 games this
season, he has been entirely healthy for roughly two. I’m not sure you can simply let go of a player like Jones, who
was a vital member of the team off the field as well, just because of one season marred by injuries.
Schneidman is right when he says that the Packers might not be able to save $5 million by cutting Jones, but there
are easy ways they could save more. According to Over The Cap, Green Bay will save about $11.5 million with a trade
or cut made after June 1.
Jones will pay the Packers more than $17.7 million in salary cap hits if he plays for the whole 2020–21 season. That’s
a lot of money to spend on a player who will be 30 in December 2024, will enter the 2023 season with seven years of
NFL experience under his belt, and has only totaled 414 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns in seven
games. Jones has missed five games this season, and his absences are related to
Despite being in his contract year, Dillon hasn’t performed like one. Pro Football Reference reports that despite a
career-worst 3.5 yards per carry, he has only amassed 521 rushing yards. Even though Dillon participated in all 12 of
Green Bay’s games in 2023—five of which he started—he only has one touchdown overall.
According to Spotrac, Dillon is worth $3.5 million a year, which he could be able to play for for a single season but
which the Packers are unable to fully guarantee on a multiyear contract going forward. He is now in the last year of a
rookie contract worth $5.3 million.
Jones might stay in the league through 2024, but if the Packers can acquire him in a trade, that asset along with the
cap relief should be sufficient motivation to strike a deal. Either way, Jones and the incorrigible left tackle David
Bakhtiari are among the best possibilities for cap casualties in Green Bay.
In recent years, the Packers have demonstrated a willingness to part with franchise players (Aaron Rodgers and
Davante Adams, for example) and to start young at every offensive skill position (Jordan Love and all of the team’s
pass catchers in 2023). Put differently, the departures of Jones and Dillon this summer won’t be considered shocking
news.
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