It should come as no surprise to baseball fans that the Toronto Blue Jays are making a valiant effort to pursue Shohei
Ohtani in free agency. The only team with a greater chance of signing him as of Saturday is the Los Angeles Dodgers,
and there’s a real chance the Japanese sensation ends up north of the border.
“Hey, I understand your skepticism. I even shared it to some extent,” Shi Davidi, a Blue Jays insider for Sportsnet,
wrote on Saturday. However, two things can be true at the same time, and in this situation, I think that’s
unquestionably the case. One, it is genuinely true that the Blue Jays want him. Two, it’s unclear to what extent
Ohtani will return the favor.
The fact that they have persevered this far into the process indicates that the Blue Jays continue to lower access
barriers, which is noteworthy. However, it is impossible to evaluate the probabilities beyond stating that they are
non-zero because it is a challenge that all interested teams must overcome in order to tip the odds in their favor: they
cannot be certain which elements Ohtani loves the most.
If the Blue Jays manage to sign the best player in baseball, it would be an incredible moment for their supporters;
however, in the unlikely event that Ohtani declines to sign in Toronto, there is another option.
If Shohei Ohtani stays south of the border, the Jays have other choices.
That includes multiple names on the free agent market, including Chicago Cubs’ Cody Bellinger, Philadelphia
Phillies’ Rhys Hoskins, and Dodgers’ JD Martinez.
“Their fallback plans are far murkier, but there are plenty of options. Cody Bellinger is the clear No. 2 bat available,
and as a left-handed hitter with discipline and pop, he’s exactly what they need,” explained Davidi. “Two other
clients of super-agent Scott Boras, however, fit their need for middle-of-the-lineup power in Rhys Hoskins and J.D.
Martinez, both of whom are likely to be short-term deals.”
In the event that none of those players pan out, Davidi sees the Jays pursuing a number of players, including Justin
Turner, a player they have previously investigated.
The Blue Jays are lowering obstacles to entry, and it is notable that they have persevered thus far into the process.
Since it is a difficulty that all interested clubs must overcome to shift the odds in their favor—namely, not knowing
which elements Ohtani loves the most—it is impossible to estimate the possibilities beyond saying that they are non-
zero.
For Blue Jays fans, it would be a historic moment if the team signed the greatest baseball player; yet, in the rare
event that Ohtani declines to sign
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