JUST IN: Michigan open door for a star……..

The AI-powered predictions from Heavy Sports are more certain than the general opinion in Vegas that the Michigan

football team will defeat Alabama in the Rose Bowl the following week, with a trip to the College Football Playoff title

game at stake.

The top-ranked Wolverines have a 60% chance of defeating the fourth-ranked Crimson Tide, according to Heavy’s

estimates, which are supported by the fourth quarter. Even while Heavy predicts a close game, Heavy is more

optimistic about Michigan by 3.5 points as a spread than online bookmakers are.

Here’s where Heavy’s forecasts deviate from the general opinion in Vegas:

Sportsbooks Are Less Like Michigan in Heavy’s Projections Sportsbooks usually concur with Do Heavy’s projections

that the Michigan-Alabama game will be close. The Rose Bowl is a one-possession game according to Heavy’s

predicted spread, which is what the model “thinks” the point spread should be, as well as every significant

bookmaker in our database. Michigan is the clear favorite according to all of the data points.

However, when compared to sportsbook spreads, the Heavy model sticks out significantly at the margins. Six of the

seven betting odds in our database put Michigan’s spread at 1.5 points as of late Tuesday night. Another bookmaker

put Michigan’s spread at two. Spreads from BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel, ESPNBET, SugarHouse, PointsBet, and

Bet365 are available in the database.

Additionally, the Heavy model predicts a game with a little greater score than the betting consensus. The combined

scoring output of both teams, or the Heavy predicted points total, was 46.5. That is two full points higher than the

totals from BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel, and ESPNBET, and a point and a half higher than the totals from

SugarHouse, PointsBet, and Bet365.

The Heavy data point is a spread prediction driven by the fourth quarter. Sportsbooks comprise the other

establishments in the table.

Michigan Football Has Outperformed Nearly Every Team It Has Faced This Year

Michigan (13-0) has an average margin of victory of 27.2 after outscoring its opponents by a total of 354 points this

season. Just three of the Wolverines’ games—against Penn State, Maryland, and Ohio State in the regular season

finale—were decided by a single digit. The Wolverines’ closest game of the season was their November 25 victory

over Ohio State, 30–24.

In the Big Ten Championship Game on December 3, Michigan football defeated Iowa 26-0 to finish a run of close

games.

Alabama, on the other hand, outscored its opponents by a total of 217 points (12-1). That represents a 16.7 average

margin. On September 9, the Crimson Tide fell short of Texas 34–24 at home. Six points or less separated the

Crimson Tide from their victories in four of those games, including a much closer-than-expected 27–24 thriller

against bitter rival Auburn on November 25.

ESPN vs. Heavy Sports Projections side by side

The matchup predictor provided by ESPN Analytics and Heavy’s prediction aren’t *that* different. Michigan is

favored to win by 55.6 percent according to the ESPN prediction. However, the Heavy model is more upbeat about

Michigan’s prospects than other metrics, awarding the Wolverines a 60

In the other national semifinal, which pits No. 2 Washington against No. 3 Texas in the Sugar Bowl, there is a

significantly greater gap between the two models. Texas is projected to prevail in both models. However, the

Longhorns are given a comparatively low 56 percent chance to win by the Heavy model. Texas, however, is given a

69.2 percent chance by the ESPN model.

Texas by 2 is Heavy’s projected spread, which deviates from the sportsbook consensus, which has Texas as a 4- or

4.5-point favorite across all books in our database.

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