When Michigan plays Alabama in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day for the first ticket to the College Football Playoff
final, the recipe for victory is very simple.
After losing to Texas early in the season and barely making it through multiple one-possession games, one could
argue that the Crimson Tide are playing with house money.
Jalen Milroe’s quick development has paralleled the course of Alabama’s season. The sophomore has established
himself as the most lethal deep-ball passer in college football. This season, Milroe started ten games and completed
passes of forty yards or more. He also led Alabama to 5.8 explosive plays of twenty yards or more per game.
This year, he has completed every throw of more than 20 yards with perfection.
Apart from averaging 39 scrimmage yards and 12 total rushing touchdowns, that is all. Because of his ability to
scramble, Milroe poses a dual danger that Michigan can contain by stopping explosive plays and containing him in
the pocket.
The bright side is that by having to throw at intermediate ranges, Milroe has shown his weakness. Out of 62 tries
ranging from 10 to 19 yards, he completed seven plays that were deserving of a turnover.
Without a doubt, Michigan, which is ranked No. 13 in sack % and No. 4 overall in total pressures, will be able to put
him under pressure.
The Wolverines can force turnovers if they can maintain this pressure on Milroe. The Wolverines are the top
program in turnover margin and have forced 13 fumbles.
The offensive line of Alabama has also been a liability; they give up 3.5 sacks per game, which ranks 11th in NCAA
football.
The problem is that this offense lacks elite players.
Jase McClellan, who has been nursing a foot injury all season, is expected to make his comeback to the Alabama
backfield after missing the SEC Championship. The starting running back for the Crimson Tide has been Milroe’s
greatest option for coverage on the ground.
Georgia’s run defense versus Alabama was not hampered by his absence. Even though it outran the Bulldogs’
explosive run attack by 36 yards on ten additional attempts, Alabama prevailed because the whole was greater than
the sum of its parts.
One of the nation’s top defenses against the run is the Wolverines. In the Big Ten Championship, they held Iowa to
35 total scrimmage yards, and they have held their opponents to 87.1 for the entire season.
The Wolverines’ backfield benefited from the 30-day rest window as well since Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards
were able to fully recover. All season long, the two have been a potent one-two punch, accumulating over 100 yards
on the ground.
This season, Alabama’s excellent defense has made up for any offensive lapses.
How well J.J. McCarthy can move outside of the pocket will determine a lot of things. This season, he has scrambled
far less, and in his last four games, he hasn’t passed for more than 150 yards.
Since Michigan has struggled with pass protection, a run-heavy approach is unavoidable. After the break, I anticipate
that the offensive line will play better, and McCarthy will put on a strong showing.
That prophecy may or may not come true, but Michigan’s offense is still built to defeat Alabama. They stay inside
with their rushing backs and steer clear of outside zone plays.
Both teams will rely heavily on their defensive abilities in what is sure to be a slow-paced contest, but Michigan has
the advantage when it comes to turnover prevention.
History appears to be influencing popular opinion in this case because of Alabama’s recent victory over Georgia and
Jim Harbaugh’s recent struggles in the College Football
From a tactical perspective, none of that should matter as Michigan faces up against its rival on Monday.
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